The ambush of the CRPF bus near Pampore on June 27, 2016 by
LeT operatives and the spurt in encounters with terrorists in Kashmir Valley
recently show that Pakistan’s proxy war against India is continuing unabated.
In order to reduce casualties and damage to property, and
improve the investment climate, India’s response needs to be reviewed and
upgraded.
Despite facing seemingly insurmountable internal security
challenges, the Pakistan army and the ISI – together constituting the
"deep state" – have been engaged in a low-intensity limited war
against India for almost three decades.
The Pakistan army believes that the balance of terror must be
in its favour, especially when the balance of power is not. Through low-key
terrorist strikes, the Pakistan army is keeping the machinery of proxy war
well-oiled so that levels of violence can be ratcheted up whenever necessary.
Pakistan’s deep state is continuing to sponsor terrorist
attacks not only in India but also against Indian assets in Afghanistan through
extremist organisations like the LeT and the JeM.
Incidents like the terrorist strike at the Pathankot air base
in January 2016 and Pakistan’s proclivity to remain in denial even though hard
evidence of the involvement of organs of the state is given to it, are
exhausting Indian patience.
A single miscalculation could lead to conflict between the
two nuclear-armed neighbours.
India’s carefully calibrated strategy to fight Pakistan’s
proxies within its own borders and on its own side of the LoC, in order to keep
the level and the intensity of conflict low and maintain a stable environment
for rapid economic growth, has not yielded the desired dividends.
For the Pakistan army it is a low-cost, high-payoff option to
keep several divisions of the Indian Army and a large number of Central Armed
Police Forces (CAPFs) embroiled in conflict.
For India the opportunity costs have been prohibitively high
in terms of the strain on the defence budget and slowing down of the rate of
growth, for example, because of the decline in tourism in J&K.
The remaining roots of Kashmiri militancy are now in PoK and
Pakistan, but eliminating these though military means is not a viable option.
India should pursue a four-pronged strategy to gradually
force Pakistan to stop waging a proxy war against India.
Firstly, India should continue to engage the elected civilian
leadership of Pakistan with a view to gradually resolving the seemingly
intractable disputes between the two countries and reducing the salience of the
Pakistan army in the country’s polity.
India should also engage members of Pakistan’s civil society
and senior veterans of its armed forces who are amenable to seeing reason as
they wield considerable influence with the generals in command.
Efforts to further liberalise the Visa regime, encourage
people-to-people contacts and enhance trade should continue.
Secondly, India should simultaneously "hit to hurt"
the Pakistan army on the LoC where it is deployed in large numbers and can be
easily reached.
For every act of terrorism on Indian territory for which
there is credible evidence pointing to the involvement of or sponsorship by the
Pakistan army and the ISI, carefully calibrated military strikes must be
launched against the Pakistan army.
These should include artillery strikes with guns firing in
the "pistol gun" mode to destroy bunkers on forward posts with
minimum collateral damage; stand-off PGM strikes on brigade and battalion HQ,
communications centres, logistics infrastructure, ammunition dumps and key
bridges; and, raids by Special Forces and Border Action Teams (BATs).
Thirdly, if Pakistan continues to drag its feet in bringing
to justice the leaders of terrorist organisations against whom hard evidence
has been provided by India, covert operations should be launched against them.
These should be based on hardcore "actionable"
intelligence and should be sanctioned at appropriate levels. Covert operations
are certainly a game that two can play, but the deep state leaves India with
few other options.
In any case, Pakistan’s ISI has been conducting covert
operations in India for long.
Since Pakistan is not inclined to bring to justice the
leaders of terrorist organisations like the LeT and the JeM, terrorists whom
they call "strategic assets", they must be neutralised through covert
operations.
Finally, along with overt military measures and covert
operations, India’s growing diplomatic clout must be harnessed to influence the
outcome by isolating the Pakistan army internationally as a rogue army due to
the acts of terrorism that it perpetuates along with the ISI.
The international community that is already tiring of
Pakistan’s shenanigans in Afghanistan, will not need too much convincing to
accept that the time has come to stop mollycoddling the Pakistan army on the
grounds that it must be supported in order to ensure that its nuclear weapons
do not fall into Jihadi hands.
Instead of wining and dining the military leadership, the
international community must censure the Pakistan army in the strictest
possible terms and give it six months’ time to stop destabilising its
neighbours.
Failing satisfactory progress, the United Nations Security
Council (UNSC) should be approached to approve an embargo on the sale of arms,
ammunition and military equipment to Pakistan.
If the UNSC resolution is vetoed by China, as it well might
be, India should use its buyers’ clout in the military industrial complex to
ensure that arms manufacturers that supply weapons and defence equipment to
Pakistan stop doing so.
India should lobby extensively with the US political
leadership and the members of the US Congress to apprise them of the fact that
continuing US support for the Pakistan army is hurting the growing Indo-US
strategic partnership because military aid strengthens the Pakistan army and
gives it greater confidence to destabilise its neighbourhood with impunity.
This four-pronged strategy should succeed in bringing
Pakistan’s proxy war to an end in one to two years. If it does not, it would be
time to raise the ante and consider tougher measures such as the abrogation of
the Indus Waters Treaty, as has been
recommended by some analysts, but such a drastic step may not be necessary.
The writer is Distinguished
Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi.
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