‘High probability of India’s next war being in mountains’

Daily Excelsior | Feb 3, 2005

Among his deductions were the high probability that the next war would erupt in the mountains with a medium chance it would remain confined to that region and not escalate. Calling for the Indian Army to further upgrade its mountain warfare capability, Brig Kanwal suggested that out of the three strike corps, one should stand down with its assets being distributed among other holding/pivot corps and the HQ forming the nucleus of a new mountain strike corps.

The widespread counter-insurgency role being undertaken by the Indian Army makes manpower reduction —necessary to free funds for qualitative upgradation to meet current and future challenges — difficult, a study says.

“India faces the short-term threat of unresolved territorial and boundary threats with both China and Pakistan, which can lead to a war,” Brig (retd) Gurmeet Kanwal, research fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, said, presenting a draft paper titled ‘Army Vision 2020 – restructuring for an era of strategic uncertainty.’

Among his deductions were the high probability (80-90 per cent) that the next war would erupt in the mountains with a medium chance (50 to 60 per cent) it would remain confined to that region and not escalate.

“Having to fight a one or two front war is among the issues the military leadership faces. It is possible that in a conflict on the LoC, China will not intervene. But in event of hostilities with China, Pakistan could,” he suggested.

The existing policy of ‘dissuasion’ with respect to China and ‘deterrence’ for Pakistan should be maintained, as the earlier policy of ‘marginalising’ the latter had not worked, he said, adding that in view of growing Chinese military power, India could also consider a policy of ‘offensive defence.’

Calling for the Indian Army to further upgrade its mountain warfare capability, Brig Kanwal suggested that out of the three strike corps, one should stand down with its assets being distributed among other holding/pivot corps and the HQ forming the nucleus of a new mountain strike corps.

Warning that the ‘revolution in military affairs’ could be bypassing India with a joint force doctrine still lacking, operational voids persisting, inadequate strike capability in high altitude warfare, poor intelligence capability, particularly for counter-insurgency operations, and so on, he said it all came down to a lack of funds, as the current defence budget could not support the existing force, its manpower and equipment. (UNI)

Sikh Regiment adjudged best marching contingent

The Sikh Regiment has been declared the best marching contingent among the three Services in the Republic Day Parade this year.

According to officials here, among the paramilitary forces and other auxiliary marching contingent, Delhi Police got the first place.

In the school children’s cultural presentation, Chhattisgarh’s Karma Dance, presented by South Central Zone Cultural Centre, Nagpur was awarded the first prize while Virasat presented by Sachdeva Public School, Rohini, was given the second place followed by Dola of Assam presented by DAV Modern School Yousuf Sarai, Delhi at the third place.

In the tableaux section, Karnataka bagged the Trophy while the Department of Justice received the second prize. The third position was shared by the tableaux of Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Ministry of Railways. (UNI)