India is an ancient civilisation but a young nation state
that is still engaged in nation building.
The lack of internal cohesion; the tensions generated by the inadequacies in
governance and the delivery of justice; and, widespread poverty are leading to
situations that increasingly pose serious challenges to national security.
In such a socio-economic environment, the armed forces and the Central armed
police forces (CAPFs) cannot be expected to manage the complex threats and
challenges to internal security all by themselves. The effort has to be a
national-level endeavour that follows a ‘whole-of-government’ approach and
includes all the organs of the state as well as all the citizens of India.
The concept of comprehensive national power (CNP) has gained currency in the
last two decades. The CNP of a nation is a product of its strategic culture;
its economic strength; its military power, including the state of its
preparedness for war; its strategic partnerships and diplomatic influence; its
internal cohesion; its ability to deliver good governance and justice; the
capability of its human capital; its advancement in science and technology and
innovation; its knowledge and information base; the advantages of geography and
natural resources that it is endowed with; the firmness of its national will;
the resolve of its leadership; and, the attractiveness of its soft power.
While India is gradually moving up the ladder in almost all other parameters of
CNP, a few fault-lines are discernible. Among these is the lack of internal
cohesion. Political divisiveness, social inconsistencies like the inequalities
inherent in the caste system, which is a relic of a feudal past, and varying
personal laws; sectarian differences; religious intolerance; ethnic tensions;
fissiparous tendencies; inter-state issues like tensions over the sharing of
river waters; and, corruption in public life and electoral politics, are all
factors that contribute to the internal cohesion fault-line.
The popular catch-phrase ‘unity in diversity’ has not quite played out the way
it was intended to. Instead, vested interests, encouraged and supported by
inimical foreign powers, have for long been fanning the flames of disunity.
Another major fault-line has been created by the inequities that have crept
into India’s economic growth. Elitist education and haphazard economic
development have created some islands of excellence but have resulted in
numerous cesspools of mediocrity and extreme poverty.
The reliance that had been placed
on a public sector-led economic growth model and the trickle-down benefits of
growth did not work out as well as the ruling elites had hoped it would.
Meanwhile, the phenomenal reach of television and the smart phone, with easy access
to social media, are fuelling the desire of families across the country to
possess the full range of consumer goods being flaunted by in-your-face
advertising.
However, the lack of employment opportunities in many economically backward
areas makes it impossible to earn enough to meet these desires. The growing
anger due to unfulfilled desires, if left unchecked, will eventually lead to
the advent of a revolution triggered by rising expectations.
Dealing with a large-scale urban/semi-urban uprising will shake up the state.
With rising expectations and inadequate employment opportunities, amid social
tensions, a revolution driven by rising expectations is staring us in the face.
India’s huge ‘demographic dividend’ (the country has the youngest work force in
the world) that economists exult so much about is likely to turn into a
demographic disaster if additional opportunities for employment are not
forthcoming at the required rate.
While India’s growth rate has clocked an impressive 7%-plus per annum, much of
it has been ‘jobless growth’ – growth in the manufacturing sector that does not
create new jobs in keeping with the quantum of investment.
A good example of jobless growth is the multi-billion dollar oil and gas
refinery at Jamnagar on India’s west coast, with a capacity of 1.24 million
barrels per day, incidentally the world’s largest single refining complex. It
employs 2,500 people working in three shifts – and, many of them are gardeners.
Educated but
unemployable
Around 10 million young women and men join the work force every year over the
next 20 years. Most of them will be educated but unemployable; that is, they
will have gone through secondary school, but will have no skills. Only about
1.20 million of them will have the skills necessary to join the manufacturing
sector every year. Unless the requirement of 100 million new jobs every year is
met, including jobs for the unskilled work force, the country will have a major
demographic challenge to contend with.
The government has initiated several measures to promote ‘skilling’, but it
will take five to seven years before tangible results are achieved. The
government can act as a catalyst, but the main drive for skilling must come
from the private sector.
The lack of internal cohesion, rising expectations and a high rate of
unemployment, in addition to the Maoist militancy and other ongoing internal
security challenges, could lead to instability of an insurmountably large
magnitude.
In comparison, the French
Revolution of 1789 will look as if it was a walk in the garden. The Central
armed police forces (BSF, CRPF, ITBP, SSB, CISF etc) number about 1.2 million
today and are almost equal to the combined personnel strength of the Army, the
Navy and the Air Force.
All the CAPFs together will be inadequate to preserve internal security in such
a volatile situation. Dealing with these
challenges will require astute political leadership and a dynamic
inter-ministerial, inter-departmental, inter-agency strategy that is
multi-disciplinary in nature. The government should formulate a comprehensive
internal security strategy to meet these foreseeable challenges without further
loss of time.
(The writer is Distinguished
Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi)